From: | Martin Steffens <chimerae@***.IE> |
---|---|
Subject: | Re: Awakened Greece and Ancient Civilization |
Date: | Sun, 30 Aug 1998 08:52:35 +0000 |
(not necessarily aimed at you, Erik, there's just a nice synopsis in
this mail so I can reply to two topics at once :)
> The two Paolos that either are or used to be here both believed that Italy
> would fracture; I think they both did some stuff on NERPS to this affect.
I hope I support their theory by saying that I agree with that one
and see Italy split up between the North and the South. The reason?
Economics; the richer North doesn't want to be bothered by the poor
South.
> >However, I would argue that depending on the event in neighboring
> >countries, Greece and Italy might be able to hold themselves together.
>
> True enough. I would argue that there would need to be a strong enough
> outside force to keep them unified though; lacking that opposing power,
> they would likely break up into squabbling city states.
The whole concept of city states doesn't really work for Greece.
There aren't enough cities in Greece to support that. I'm also
curious why everyone seems to support the theory that also every
single country is going to fragmentate in a bunch of smaller ones?
Countries are not splitting up for the heck of it, or just because
there's no external force to keep them together. In most cases it is
because the population is not homogenic thanks to them being forced
into one country by either an external force or an internal leader.
That's why Yugoslavia "balkanized", it was a bunch of ethic and
cultural very different people and as soon as the force that kept
them together fell away (read Tito died), they had a natural tendency
to fall apart again. Since the different groups got mixed up, and
really didn't like each other very much it got very messy as a result.
Africa and the Middle East are two other good examples. Most nations
there have been formed by the colonial powers. When they pulled out
they left behind countries that didn't have "natural" borders and
often put tribes in one country with an enemy, or they discovered the
half of their people suddenly lived in another country.
If a country has a strong national pride, a solid economic system,
or homogenic cultural group it is even less likely to break up.
Germany is a good example of the first two (couldn't resist that :),
the Netherlands of the last two (and maybe also the first) and
Ireland has all three (except the north of course).
Greece doesn't have any reason to fragmentate, unless the two
Macedonia's decide to join up in the North, despite the people
identifying themselves by their region. Heck that's the same all
through Europe, and I dare to say the World. Even if it did, with the
current global economic system there's only that much you can split
up before the parts are to weak to exist. City states with less than
a couple of million inhabitants and a solid local economy would die
in a few years. There is a reason why there is a tendency to join
economic co-operative unions in this day (or more than that in case
of the EU). A state splitting up can go from somebody in the
international arena to a bunch of nothings in a flash. No politician
worth his suit would overlook that factor.
> Aside from Turkei (which I agree the Greeks all dislike), what other
> external forces might keep Greece unified? And speaking of Turkei, what
> might that old and proud nation be like itself in 2060? Would it revert to
> the Ottoman Empire, the ancient Hittite Empire, or stay the course as it is
> now? Something different? And *might* the Turks and the Greeks finally
> learn to live with each other?
The ancient Hittite empire??? And that's coming from you, oh Egyptian
Pharaoh basher? :). IIRC, if Turkey keeps a strong government like it
has now it will stay in one piece. If not they are going to face
losses of land in the east to the Kurds and other groups there that
aren't too happy right now. They might even lose Cyprus to the Greeks
(which is one of the main reasons why they still are hostile towards
each other), and that could create a small war in the region.
> Each state did their own treaties, their own laws, their own money and the
> Federation Congress was without much power at all. I could easily see this
> as a model for 2060 Greece. And much like ancient Greece, during times of
> war you'd have most of the Greek city states putting aside their
> differences to repel outside enemies.
That's what I hope the EU will be in 2060... but I'm a hopeless
optimist I guess. Current provincial structures can allow for the
same local independence without the need to chop up the country. Many
countries in Europe already do give more power to provinces, who in
return give more to the local cities. Centralization of power only
works to a certain extend as they are realizing now.
> Who really likes discussing these sorts of things; physics is too hard...
> ;-(
Amen to that, brother Erik :).
Karina & Martin Steffens
chimerae@***.ie