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Message no. 1
From: "J. G. du Chatinier" <chatin@*******.NL>
Subject: How real is Shadowrun?
Date: Sun, 8 Feb 1998 22:45:17 +0100
Hya all..

I've been wondering (Yes. Sorry.)... how realistic is FASA's Storyline about
the 2050's... MEgacorps, Eurowars, Decking, Rigging, cyberware, the
Matrix... Anyone know if those things could be done in time in the real
world (tm)?

Just woderin'...

Jod
chatin@*******.nl
http://www.euronet.nl/users/chatin/index.htm
IDM
Male
Message no. 2
From: Grahamdrew <grahamdrew@*********.COM>
Subject: Re: How real is Shadowrun?
Date: Sun, 8 Feb 1998 16:54:13 -0500
well, not really. Japan hd an economic crash in 1996 (So says Seattle),
and that spurred the creation of the Yakuza and Rings in Seattle in a
way....

so it wouldn't QUITE be the same, but it might be kinda done if it
wern't quite the same
--
Disclaimer: My mind is so fragmented by random excursions into a
wilderness of abstractions and incipient ideas that the
practical purposes of the moment are often submerged in my consciousness
and I don't know what I'm doing.
Message no. 3
From: Robert Watkins <robert.watkins@******.COM>
Subject: Re: How real is Shadowrun?
Date: Mon, 9 Feb 1998 09:23:04 +1000
J. G. du Chatinier writes:
>I've been wondering (Yes. Sorry.)... how realistic is FASA's Storyline
about
>the 2050's... MEgacorps, Eurowars, Decking, Rigging, cyberware, the
>Matrix... Anyone know if those things could be done in time in the real
>world (tm)?


As mentioned several times in SR novels and books, the SR world is NOT as
technically advanced as most technology predictors would expect 2050+ to be.
That's one of the reasons that CP2020 is at a similar level of technology.
The Crash of '29 wiped out virtually all computer records, and set back SOME
(not all) areas of technology by MORE than 30 years... so they still haven't
caught up in all areas.

Megacorps: why not? Corporations are getting more and more international,
and true extraterritoriality is becoming more and more a possibility.
Several corps already have budgets bigger than many countries, and not just
third-world countries either. I don't know if the route used in SR will
happen, but I can conceive some third-world or Asian economy falling over
and corporations going in and buying it outright, passing laws so that it
becomes a tax haven, and moving their HQ there.

Cyberware... the key to all cyberware is the brain/machine interface. A
serious report I read about this predicts this to be solved within 30 years,
plus or minus an order of magnitude. That means somewhere within 3 to 300
years, with the best guess around 30. However, it's not a sure bet, as there
are lots of incomplete data in the picture on how the brain works. Once they
figure out how to decode signals in the brain, making a machine interface
would be trivial.
Some parts of cyberware are already possible. It is currently possible, and
has been for years, to make a prosthetic arm controlled by the nerves for
the old arm, by splicing it in. Feedback isn't possible yet, though, and the
power supply problems are big. (Machines need several times the amount of
electricity sent down nerves).

Rigging/Decking... it's the brain/machine interface problem again. Once they
solve this, anything is possible.

Eurowars... no, not really, _at this time_. I can't see Europe waiting until
2039 to have a fight... either they'll do it earlier, or they'll settle into
a nice big EuroFamily.

Just my 2 cents (hmm... we don't have 2 cents anymore, and under Federal
law, this would be rounded down to nothing... well, you knew it was worth
that anyway. :) )

--
.sig deleted to conserve electrons. robert.watkins@******.com
Message no. 4
From: Fade <runefo@***.UIO.NO>
Subject: Re: How real is Shadowrun?
Date: Mon, 9 Feb 1998 01:11:31 +0000
> Hya all..
>
> I've been wondering (Yes. Sorry.)... how realistic is FASA's Storyline about
> the 2050's... MEgacorps, Eurowars, Decking, Rigging, cyberware, the
> Matrix... Anyone know if those things could be done in time in the real
> world (tm)?
>
> Just woderin'...

You're not alone on that... it's a popular subject.

In short, it's not too bad. The technical gadgets is fairly
unimportant, it's people that should be the main challenge and the
main solution to any problem. ('people' includes insect spirits,
AI's, dragons, elves and trolls, but ok... :)

Okay, in order of asking, here's my take on it....

Megacorps
Megacorps is a consequence of capitalism without democratic control
to avoid syndicates, monopolization etc. While it might look like
that is not a danger, it is a challenge. If it is not properly met,
yes, then megacorps is possible, or even quite likely. Suggested
reading on this subject is Foreign Affairs article 'Has democracy a
future?' by Albert Schlesinger.

Eurowars
What you think of as Europe at first glance - England, Spain, Italy,
France, Germany, the Scandinavian nations - is quite stable at first
glance, and firmly allied through NATO. In today's situation, which
does not appear likely to change anytime soon, these nations are
untouchable. Eastern europe, though, is neither stable nor firmly
allied, and there is a great deal of fear, emnity, poverty and
weapons there - a very unwholesome mix. But some changes would have
to happen for anything to become more than minor wars. I'd say they
are fairly unrealistic, but neither is it likely to be a place
without wars - in fact it probably will get fairly ugly the next
couple of decades. One of the darker shadows is today's expansion of
NATO. Poland, which historically has great emnity to Russia, might
soon become a member of Nato, and if they felt safe from retaliation
then they might initiate unwise actions... or Russia might feel that
Nato was becoming a threatening, hostile enemy and 'react' first.
Another possible barrier to Nato is Turkey, which is not as stable as
other current Nato members (PKK) and also borders Russia, Tetchenya -
and can thus be forced to take part in a conflict that could then
rapidly expand. Turkey also has threatened to block expansion of Nato
unless they receive some concessions, which shows signs of cracks in
the great alliance .. factors that could lead to a destabilization
of europe abound. With enough stupidity, they could lead to the
eurowars, but I think it unlikely.... but not impossible.



Decking
Decking assumes a significant advance in computing power. Computers
has, for the last 50 years, advanced at a steady pace of 60% P.A.
This rate does not seem likely to abate anytime soon. If it does not
for the next fifty years, we have have computers operating at 6500
Gigaherz by 2050 ((1.6^50)*600Mhz) or computers more than a million
times as powerful as current ones. Decking, as envisioned in SR, is
probably quite obsolete by then, with the human brain far outpaced by
the technological one.

Rigging
It would be possible to do, but wether it would be done is an open
question. For some uses it would definitely be interesting, which
might become a military toy as well - and then you have riggers.

Cyberware
This is quite likely. We see the first beginnings of it, with
electronic ears and eyes directly connected to the brain allready,
and this will only keep developing. Areas like prostethics
(cyberlimb replacement), neural bypass (rmaking a 'backup' nervous
system for paraplegics), brain chips (computer chips designed to help
replace parts of the brain damaged by alzheimer's) and so on is
allready being worked on and most of this might be seen in the next
20-30 years. From there to what's in SR is a very short step.

the Matrix
(See decking.). This is not unlikely, and will probably be the next
step.. in 5-20 years' time, and might be obsolete by 2050.

Two other important timeline items...
VITAS

VITAS was a horrendous epidemic that killed off perhaps half the
world's population. This is one of the most realistic threats we are
faced with today, and, if you watch carefully, one of the most feared
possibilities by medical personell. It is, in other words, not
unlikely. AIDS, which is the current 'bad bug' appears likely to wipe
out 20% or more of the population in parts of Africa, while it is
mostly under control in the USA and Europe.. but this is a disease
that takes 10-15 years to kill someone. If it was an aerosol virus
and killed in half a year instead... the death toll would be
staggering. The only reason it isn't.... is plain luck. Something
like VITAS is statistically guaranteed to appear within 50 years....
wether it spreads or dies quietly is an open question.


The Great Crash

This is .... hm... I'd say it is unlikely, but then, if Microsoft
gains monopoly and someone finds a way to seriously fuck up all
MS-OS driven machines...well, it might happen like that. I don't
think it will, but it is theoretically possible. It is a matter of
debate how seriously it would affect society ranging from 'it'd be a
problem for a few days' to 'end of the world' kind of effects.


that's about it right now.
--
Fade

And the Prince of Lies said:
"To reign is worth ambition, though in Hell:
Better to reign in hell than to serve in heaven."
-John Milton, Paradise Lost
Message no. 5
From: Damon Harper <nomad74@*******.COM>
Subject: Re: How real is Shadowrun?
Date: Sun, 8 Feb 1998 17:51:40 PST
>Hya all..
>
>I've been wondering (Yes. Sorry.)... how realistic is FASA's Storyline
about
>the 2050's... MEgacorps, Eurowars, Decking, Rigging, cyberware, the
>Matrix... Anyone know if those things could be done in time in the real
>world (tm)?
>
>Just woderin'...

Megacorps: Well, money is power... It's debatable whether or not
Disney is a megacorp. :)
Eurowars: Since nothing is really forseeable in the European market,
I think it's unlikely- but war is hardly predictable.
Decking/Rigging: The human brain is a very sensitive thing. We are
discovering new things about it almost everyday. While such thing may
be possible someday, I don't think it will happen in my lifetime.
Matrix: While decking directly may not be possible for a while, a
virtual reality plane in which programs and systems are like icons,
accessed through a virtual reality system isn't exactly as science
fiction as it used to be.
Cyberware: We are just beginning to take our first steps with
cyberware. If you'd like for me to expand on the discoveries science
has made in this department I will, but I don't want to start repeating
myself :)


-Vagabond <nomad74@*******.com><ICQ 4297972>
___________________________________________________________
¹vag·a·bond \va-ge-bänd\ adj. 1: wandering, homeless
2: of, characteristic of, or leading the life of a vagrant
or tramp 3: leading an unsettled or irresponsible life

²vagabond n: one leading a vagabond life; esp : tramp


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Message no. 6
From: "Steven A. Tinner" <bluewizard@*****.COM>
Subject: Re: How real is Shadowrun?
Date: Sun, 8 Feb 1998 21:47:16 -0500
>I've been wondering (Yes. Sorry.)... how realistic is FASA's Storyline
about
>the 2050's... MEgacorps, Eurowars, Decking, Rigging, cyberware, the
>Matrix... Anyone know if those things could be done in time in the real
>world (tm)?
>
>Just woderin'...

Well, let's see if there's any food riots in New York in the late 1990's,
and then we can wait until the teens and see if anybody turns into an elf
...

If that happens then I'm sure their time machine is working properly and
they've got everything else right too!

Steven A. Tinner
bluewizard@*****.com
http://www.ncweb.com/users/bluewizard
"I am 32 flavors and then some."
Message no. 7
From: Gurth <gurth@******.NL>
Subject: Re: How real is Shadowrun?
Date: Mon, 9 Feb 1998 11:46:39 +0100
J. G. du Chatinier said on 22:45/ 8 Feb 98...

> I've been wondering (Yes. Sorry.)... how realistic is FASA's Storyline about
> the 2050's... MEgacorps, Eurowars, Decking, Rigging, cyberware, the
> Matrix... Anyone know if those things could be done in time in the real
> world (tm)?

Megacorps already exist. Hell, we had the first one in the world: the VOC
had offices around the wor...eastern hemisphere :) , negotiated treaties
with local rulers, imported all kinds of stuff and sold it against high
prices, and had its own army...

The Eurowars sound very much like an argument to keep the technology and
economies under control by FASA, one of the measures to prevent parts of
the world from being more advanced than the rest. It's _possible_ there'd
be a war like this, but only if things go wrong quote a bit, IMHO.

Decking, rigging, cyberware, and the Matrix are all closely connected, and
we're sort of getting there already. We have artificial limbs, although
they aren't really integrated into the body yet they can do pretty amazing
things (ever seen someone play sports with an artificial leg?) and
datajacks have already been invented somewhere in the 1970s, IIRC -- at a
university someone had a plug wired into his brain and the researchers
measured various responses. All that's needed there is more research into
how these things can be made to work for us, and you're most of the way
there.

As for the Matrix, what's that but a thought-controlled VRML environment?
If you can make a datajack and let a computer measure the signals the
brain gives off through the jack, writing software to act on those signals
should be one of the easier steps.

--
Gurth@******.nl - http://www.xs4all.nl/~gurth/index.html - UIN5044116
Save Ferris!
-> NERPS Project Leader & Unofficial Shadowrun Guru <-
-> The Plastic Warriors Page: http://www.xs4all.nl/~gurth/plastic.html <-
-> The New Character Mortuary: http://www.electricferret.com/mortuary/ <-

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Message no. 8
From: Kevin R Mohondro <mohkev@******.COM>
Subject: Re: How real is Shadowrun?
Date: Mon, 9 Feb 1998 12:12:46 -0800
> From: Fade <runefo@***.UIO.NO>

[SNIP a very well stated post,BTW]

>
> Decking
> Decking assumes a significant advance in computing power. Computers
> has, for the last 50 years, advanced at a steady pace of 60% P.A.
> This rate does not seem likely to abate anytime soon. If it does not
> for the next fifty years, we have have computers operating at 6500
> Gigaherz by 2050 ((1.6^50)*600Mhz) or computers more than a million
> times as powerful as current ones. Decking, as envisioned in SR, is
> probably quite obsolete by then, with the human brain far outpaced by
> the technological one.

I don't know about this. Yes, the computers will probably become faster
than anything we can imagine. But, I think the whole decking interface
will become a reality. It would make everything dealing with computers
that much faster/easier and therefore more profitable.

[SNIP]

> the Matrix
> (See decking.). This is not unlikely, and will probably be the next
> step.. in 5-20 years' time, and might be obsolete by 2050.

Obsolete only because we can't really forsee any replacement at the
moment, IMO.

> Two other important timeline items...
> VITAS
>
> VITAS was a horrendous epidemic that killed off perhaps half the
> world's population. This is one of the most realistic threats we are
> faced with today, and, if you watch carefully, one of the most feared
> possibilities by medical personell. It is, in other words, not
> unlikely. AIDS, which is the current 'bad bug' appears likely to wipe
> out 20% or more of the population in parts of Africa, while it is
> mostly under control in the USA and Europe.. but this is a disease
> that takes 10-15 years to kill someone. If it was an aerosol virus
> and killed in half a year instead... the death toll would be
> staggering. The only reason it isn't.... is plain luck. Something
> like VITAS is statistically guaranteed to appear within 50 years....
> wether it spreads or dies quietly is an open question.

This is a very scary thought. However, I have to agree with you. We
(humans) seem to have a knack for finding (or inventing) nifty new virii
that can wipe out whole countries.

--
-Moe
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kevin R Mohondro mohkev@******.com
Software Engineer
SalePoint/Retail Interact (619) 552-2026
Message no. 9
From: Fade <runefo@***.UIO.NO>
Subject: Re: How real is Shadowrun?
Date: Mon, 9 Feb 1998 23:24:49 +0000
> > From: Fade <runefo@***.UIO.NO>
>
> [SNIP a very well stated post,BTW]
Thanks. :)

> > Decking
*SNIP*
> > the Matrix
> > (See decking.). This is not unlikely, and will probably be the next
> > step.. in 5-20 years' time, and might be obsolete by 2050.
>
> Obsolete only because we can't really forsee any replacement at the
> moment, IMO.

True. Still.. imagine this. In ten years, more or less, lines should
be on average about a hundred times faster than today. Then you could
navigate through the 'web', or matrix, with a VR helmet (with
surround sound) and sensor gloves - point your finger and down you go
to another node, filled with a virtual world of possible information.
A flick of the wrist, and you've downloaded info or plunged into a
totally immersive realm indistinguishable from a fantasy reality -
(AKA Mud 2010) except you're still in your chair at home. (And
without the tactile bits...fortunately? ;). The possibilities, once
the tech advances another milestone or two (and it does, rapidly)
can be dreamt about, envisioned, and the best part... mostly
realized. In another twenty years, probably more, there will be
datajacks or similar. Immortality is, medically, just around the
corner... ten or twenty years, max. Our generation will live their
lives with five times the change of our parents' generation, and
twenty times that of our grandparents. They saw the advent of the car
at their dawn, and at their nightfall the cars cowered the earth. Our
parents saw the dawn of the electronic age. Now it is totally
dominant. We... we have seen the dawn of the computer age. What will
we see at nightfall?

Lots. Stuff like we cannot imagine... I'm looking forward to the
adventure of my lifetime... I hope to see it all, know it all,
never shy from change, face the primal fear of the unknown and laugh
in its face. Keep an open mind, and in the process hopefully
influence things for the better. That's what I see in my future. It's
what I hope for all of us.



--
Fade

And the Prince of Lies said:
"To reign is worth ambition, though in Hell:
Better to reign in hell than to serve in heaven."
-John Milton, Paradise Lost
Message no. 10
From: DrakkathX@***.COM
Subject: Re: How real is Shadowrun?
Date: Mon, 9 Feb 1998 18:10:34 EST
>Hya all..
>
>I've been wondering (Yes. Sorry.)... how realistic is FASA's Storyline about
>the 2050's... MEgacorps, Eurowars, Decking, Rigging, cyberware, the
>Matrix... Anyone know if those things could be done in time in the real
>world (tm)?
>
>Just woderin'...


hell yes it's realistic
Message no. 11
From: Alex Fuson <alexfuson@*******.COM>
Subject: Re: How real is Shadowrun?
Date: Tue, 10 Feb 1998 01:00:31 GMT
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>From: DrakkathX@***.COM
>Subject: Re: How real is Shadowrun?
>To: SHADOWRN@********.ITRIBE.NET
>
>>Hya all..
>>
>>I've been wondering (Yes. Sorry.)... how realistic is FASA's Storyline
about
>>the 2050's... MEgacorps, Eurowars, Decking, Rigging, cyberware, the
>>Matrix... Anyone know if those things could be done in time in the
real
>>world (tm)?
>>
>>Just woderin'...
>
>
> hell yes it's realistic
>

Shadowrun is realistic. It just depends on your view of things. Look
at the United States gavernment for just a second. Many people think
that they are doing many things behind our backs. A few of these
secrets have been revealed.
I'm quite sure that the government is VERY ahead of us in many ways:
technology, medicines, weapons, and what-not. In a few years I'm also
sure that some more secrets will come forth. Who's to say what will
happen tomorrow? The government may announce that they have been doing
research for cyberware for thirty years and it has been perfected since
1984 by tonight!

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Message no. 12
From: Wordman <wordman@*******.COM>
Subject: Re: How real is Shadowrun?
Date: Wed, 11 Feb 1998 01:52:12 -0500
Fade wrote:
>Then you could
>navigate through the 'web', or matrix, with a VR helmet (with
>surround sound) and sensor gloves - point your finger and down you go
>to another node, filled with a virtual world of possible information.

You could, but would you want to? I am perfectly capable of imagining a
full 3D interface, but I have yet to see, hear of or envision why most of
the world would need such an interface. Yes, there are certain things that
3D interface would be extremely helpful for (physics simulations on nearly
every scale, from particle collisions to aerodynamics to galactic models,
as an example), but most people barely need two dimensions of computing.
Think about the web. Right now, it is possible to design "3D" web sites
using VRML; it's even pretty easy. How many of these sites have you seen?
Maybe a couple. You might have thought to yourself "this is cooler than 2D
web sites", but can you honestly say it was _more_useful_? It's not trendy,
but I don't think a Gibsonesque network will ever be the omni-present
computing experience.

Having said that, full VR will be a reality in the future. It will be cheap
and gain popularity, eventually, because it will prove itself the same way
that nearly every technology since the printing press has: though its
ability to deliver pornography. Porn and interactive gaming will create a
Matrix of a sort, but it will not really be omni-present, and most
businesses will not use a VR interface to id.

>In another twenty years, probably more, there will be
>datajacks or similar.

Maybe, but I doubt it. I've seen present day electrode systems that you can
actually control slightly with biofeedback (and man, it's an odd
experience), but again I don't think there will really be a market for a
datajack. I could see it first for simsense. Also, I think the tech curve
will be pretty steep on this one. Apart from the man/machine interface,
there is a lot we don't know about the brain. Unless we start some research
using humans as expendible lab animals, I don't think a 20 year timeline is
likely.

>Immortality is, medically, just around the
>corner... ten or twenty years, max.

This is total jetwash. Take a snapshot of America at the end of each
decade. For each decade, plot a graph of everyone who died during that
decade. On the x-axis, plot age in years at death. On the y-axis, plot the
percentage of deaths who were of a given age. In 1910, the graph will an
initial peak, then near nothing, then start climbing around age 40. The
increase will peak at around 50 or so, then move down quickly. From about
60 on, the line records a very small number of deaths until it hits about
100 or so, where moves to zero. This means that infant mortality rates were
pretty high in 1910, and people tended to die at about 50 or 60. As the
decades go on, the initial peak is not as high and the second peak pushes
further down the age axis, but gets wider. This is the advances of
medicine, keeping people from dying. The average age at death keeps
increasing. But after ten decades, you notice something about the graph:
the endpoint (where deaths go to zero) doesn't move very much -- it stays
at about 100 years. Maybe by 1990 it's moved to 110 or so. Medicine
increases the _average_lifespan_, but this is not the same as increasing
the maximum lifespan.

There is a reason for this. There is quite a bit of evidence that after
cells have divided a certain number of times, they stop. You live long
enough, you just stop working. It is true that there may be medical
advances that stop this from occurring, but it seems more likely to me that
medical research in the future reach limits in increasing average lifespan
and will focus on a) defeating the increasing number of epidemic-type
diseases, b) frantically searching for a replacement to anti-biotics and c)
increasing the quality of life in the 100 years or so that we have.


>We... we have seen the dawn of the computer age. What will
>we see at nightfall?

Flames, probably. Lots of flames.

One thing that this post made me think about: we base our predictions of
what the future will be like on the current technology makes possible and
that certain things we envision will be built in the future. I wonder, once
the future has built these things, how the people in 2050 envision their
future. That might make some interesting shadowruns.

I think, unfortunately, that the above method of reading the future is
doomed to failure. People in the past, even the recent past, like the '60's
knew about computers, even built them, but very few of them predicted the
"computer on every desktop" evolution, nor the huge impact it would have on
our economy, entertainment and culture. They thought "we have big
comupters, maintained by high priests -- in the future the computers will
be smarter" and you get predictions like HAL 9000.

I think that one of the most believable predictive books of the future was,
oddly, the Dilbert Future. Two things in this book stand out. 1) Adam's
rule of the unexpected: "Something unexpected always happens to wreck any
good trend". and 2) his three immutable laws of human nature, which form
the basis of all his logic: Stupidity, Selfishness, Horniness. I would have
replaced "laziness" for stupidity, but that's why I'm a computer programmer
and not a prognosticating cartoonist.

Anyway,
Wordman
Message no. 13
From: Fade <runefo@***.UIO.NO>
Subject: Re: How real is Shadowrun?
Date: Wed, 11 Feb 1998 11:38:56 +0000
Wordman wrote:
> Fade wrote:
> >Then you could
> >navigate through the 'web', or matrix, with a VR helmet (with
> >surround sound) and sensor gloves - point your finger and down you go
> >to another node, filled with a virtual world of possible information.
>
> You could, but would you want to?

It can be a lot more portable than a laptop, and not require a
keyboard, for one. For another, layout and document design could be
a lot easier. It would not replace workstations, since they
also have their uses. (And doesn't cut someone away from the real
world.).

> >In another twenty years, probably more, there will be
> >datajacks or similar.
>
> Maybe, but I doubt it.*snip*
> Also, I think the tech curve
> will be pretty steep on this one. Apart from the man/machine interface,
> there is a lot we don't know about the brain. Unless we start some research
> using humans as expendible lab animals, I don't think a 20 year timeline is
> likely.

Experiments like wiring audio, visual or (chip intended to
bypass brain functions) devices into the brain? Something like that?
That is allready happening. (Ok, the chip bit is still on the
research stage, but still..).


> >Immortality is, medically, just around the
> >corner... ten or twenty years, max.
>
> This is total jetwash. *SNIP*

That was true and will be for a little while longer. On the other
hand more and more of the body's secrets is being uncovered, and a
lot of scientists claim they are finding important pieces in that
particular puzzle, immortality. Medical science, especially in the
area of genetics, is advancing at a surprising rate right now - check
how Saquinavir was designed, for instance. (Computer modeled
molecular design to interfer with virus RNA repliaction.).

> >We... we have seen the dawn of the computer age. What will
> >we see at nightfall?
>
> Flames, probably. Lots of flames.

Are you referring to nuclear holocaust or hell? In either case, not
much of a comment. The threat of all out nuclear war is vastly
reduced. The threat of single nukes is greatly increased, but that
won't destroy the world. Still, I guess it is a response if you have
nothing else to say.

> I think, unfortunately, that the above method of reading the future is
> doomed to failure.

You are too pessimistic, and too intent on naysaying. Notice the
trend...

>>A more virtual reality
>What's the use? it's pointless, and noone would use it.

>>Datajacks in 20 years, probably more.
>Would take longer.
(Why do you think I included 'probably more' ? Just for show?)

>>Immortality may be possible in 10-20 years.
>Nah.
Why not? What god told you it would not be possible? The same that
told engineers in the 40's that breaking the sound barrier was
impossible? I don't guarantee it will exist in 10-20 years, but there
is little reason why it will not be possible somewhere down the line.
And at the present rate of advance, it is more likely to be sooner
than later.

>>The future holds great promise.
>We'll be dead.
(You're a Keynesian, aren't you? :)

As for dilbert's author, he's a cynic with a frighteningly accurate
interpretation of life. While he captures amusingly cynical details
of life, that is far from all there is.

--
Fade

And the Prince of Lies said:
"To reign is worth ambition, though in Hell:
Better to reign in hell than to serve in heaven."
-John Milton, Paradise Lost
Message no. 14
From: Wordman <wordman@*******.COM>
Subject: Re: How real is Shadowrun?
Date: Fri, 13 Feb 1998 02:08:58 -0500
Fade wrote:
>Wordman wrote:
>> >We... we have seen the dawn of the computer age. What will
>> >we see at nightfall?
>>
>> Flames, probably. Lots of flames.

>Are you referring to nuclear holocaust or hell?

Actually, I meant good old fashioned fire. The one thing I find all to
beleivable about the Shadowrun future is Neoterrorism and the Night of
Rage. Even without metahumans, I think racial or ethnic hatred will flare
up very dramatically in the next century, as will terrorist attacks. If
that happens, a lot of people and places are going to burn.

> Still, I guess it is a response if you have nothing else to say.

I had a lot more to say in that post, I just didn't think it needed much
more explaining. As you said, you noticed a trend. I got my point across,
so you know it's there. Some will agree, some won't. Why continue?

> (You're a Keynesian, aren't you? :)

Never met him.

> While he captures amusingly cynical details of life, that is far from
> all there is.

The same, of course, holds true for boundless optimism in science's ability
to work miracles without drawbacks. People say things like "Immortality may
be possible in 10-20 years" as if that's a good thing. I find it sort of
horrifying. Technological "miracles" tend to bring some bad stuff along
with the good. As an example, at some time in the future, we will figure
out how to build cheap fusion reactors. The cheap, plentiful and (mostly)
clean power this will provide will have a huge impact on making the world a
better place. At the same time, however, when such an invention is created,
it is going to have dramatic, mostly negative short-term consequences on
world markets, global politics and the lives of anyone involved in, say,
the coal and oil industries. Sure, it's likely that the good will outweigh
the bad, especially in the long run. All I'm saying is that putting so much
faith in science without preparing for unintended consequences is naive.

Wordman

"Trust in Allah, but tie your camel."
- Arabian porverb

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