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Message no. 1
From: Todd Montgomery <tmont@****.WVU.EDU>
Subject: New Dice Rolling Idea for SR
Date: Thu, 16 Sep 1993 10:28:31 -0400
I had an idea early this morning that I would like to have some opinions on.

The SR dice rolling convention has always bothered me in the fact that
_normally_ there is no difference between a 6 T# and a 7T#. Unless other
modifications are taken into account. To illustrate the hole in the
probabilities that are formed is a table I took from somewhere (I can't
remember exactly). The average number of successes between 6 and 7 are
the same.

SHADOW RUN: Average Number of Successes

No. of Dice Used)
v Target Number:
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
1 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
3 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 3.3 2.7 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
5 4.2 3.3 2.5 1.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
6 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
7 5.8 4.7 3.5 2.3 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
8 6.7 5.3 4.0 2.7 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9 7.5 6.0 4.5 3.0 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10 8.3 6.7 5.0 3.3 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11 9.2 7.3 5.5 3.7 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
12 10 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
13 11 8.7 6.5 4.3 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
14 12 9.3 7.0 4.7 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
15 13 10 7.5 5.0 2.5 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
16 13 11 8.0 5.3 2.7 2.7 2.2 1.8 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
17 14 11 8.5 5.7 2.8 2.8 2.4 1.9 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
18 15 12 9.0 6.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
19 16 13 9.5 6.3 3.2 3.2 2.6 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
20 17 13 10 6.7 3.3 3.3 2.8 2.2 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1

This is the number of successes you will get on average. That means that half
the time you will get more and half the time less. An average of 0.1 successes
indicates that you will get a single success 1 roll in 10. For example, if you
roll 20 dice against a target number of 17, you will, on average, only get 0.2
successes. This translates to 1 success every 5 attempts! However, with 6 dice
and a target number of 4, you get 3 successes on average. Each die has a 50/50
chance of succeeding.

Cheers,

James Wadsley.

Thanks James,

Now how can this problem be fixed?

A possible solution is changing the dice so that the numbers on the dice
go from 0 to 5. I have some dice that are actually like this. I think
they would be relatively easy to find. When doing this use 0 to mean 0
and 5 to mean 5. (That's easy) Reroll on a 5 and add 0, this gives 5.
Reroll on 5 and get 1 that gives 6. etc.

How does this change the avergae number of successes?
Like this:


No. of Dice Used)
v Target Number:
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
1 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

And Target Numbers of 1 are like so:

No. of Dice: 1 (0.8)
2 (1.7)

The numbers are rounded so they will fit, but believe me when I say the
average number of success declines. (40 calcualtions).

How does this affect the game?
Well to keep everything as it is for T# less than 6, Reduce the
Target Numbers by 1. For Target Numbers above 6 reduce the Target Number by
an Target Number/10 round off. This should keep the probabilities close
enough for Government work.

Comments?

Anyone want to try it?

-- Quiktek
-- Todd Montgomery
tmont@****.wvu.edu
tmont@***.wvu.edu
un032507@*******.wvnet.edu
Message no. 2
From: Luke Kendall <luke@********.CANON.OZ.AU>
Subject: Re: New Dice Rolling Idea for SR
Date: Fri, 17 Sep 1993 09:21:58 +1000
Quiktek suggested a `rolling up 6' rule that distinguished 6 from 7.

Our group tried something like this when we first started -
6's meant you added 5 to the total and rolled again.

The rule lasted for about 2 weeks, when we noticed that FASA
had adjusted all of (most of?) their target number tables to
match their rules - i.e. 6 and 7 (and 12 and 13, and...) usually
had little difference.

So we'd made lots of things harder to do or obtain, or more expensive...

luke
Message no. 3
From: Chris Siebenmann <cks@********.UTCS.TORONTO.EDU>
Subject: Re: New Dice Rolling Idea for SR
Date: Fri, 17 Sep 1993 16:41:02 -0400
The simple fix: a rerolled 6 is actually a five, not a six. You may
want to make this only true for the first reroll, or ignore the issue.

- cks

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