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Message no. 1
From: Stefan <casanova@***.PASSAGEN.SE>
Subject: (Fwd) Re: Oil in the future...
Date: Wed, 30 Sep 1998 00:57:26 +0000
Sir Philos Nex wrote:

> [SNIP Oil as energy]
>
> Hate to be the one pointing this out but it appears like all you talk
> about is oil as energy. What about the fact that oil is a vital
> component in a lot of plastics and so on ? What will replace that.
> Even thou we pump up oil and and depleating out sources of it there
> are most likely alot of sources still not found and even thou it
> takes a long long time there is new oil being created by mother
> earth.

I guess a question is: How long does it take to create oil? The natural
process in mother earth that is.. Someone posted a rather informative
cut-n-paste about oil and reserves in the future.. but it does seem like
there are many many different opinions otherwise about just how much is
left. It sounds almost like the Y2K problem with opinions.. some people say
it'll be catestrophic and others say it'll merely pass.. it just seems like
in 2060 no matter what is going on, oil will be in at least a somewhat
hurting state and prices for gas won't be 52 cents a litre.

--
Andrew Dominas
AKA Sir Philos Nex
3rd Year Honours Business Administration U of Windsor
Sysop LiMBo BBS 519 - 948 - 7400 TAG 2.7d
ICQ: 4050857
Message no. 2
From: Robert Watkins <robert.watkins@******.COM>
Subject: Re: (Fwd) Re: Oil in the future...
Date: Wed, 30 Sep 1998 09:20:17 +1000
Stefan writes:
> I guess a question is: How long does it take to create oil?
> The natural
> process in mother earth that is.. Someone posted a rather informative
> cut-n-paste about oil and reserves in the future.. but it does seem like
> there are many many different opinions otherwise about just how much is
> left. It sounds almost like the Y2K problem with opinions.. some
> people say
> it'll be catestrophic and others say it'll merely pass.. it just
> seems like
> in 2060 no matter what is going on, oil will be in at least a somewhat
> hurting state and prices for gas won't be 52 cents a litre.

Okay, here's the process as I understand it... Note that my figures might be
off, but let's say upfront that it's not an overnight process.

Oil, as we all know, is basically organic matter that has decomposed in a
pressurised environment (eg, underground). Most oil fields are the graves of
former forests. The organic matter gets trapped underneath the surface, and
decomposes into an oily state. I'm not sure what the triggering condition
that decides wether it becomes oil or coal, however, as coal seams are made
in basically the same way.

Most oil fields are several _million_ years old. This is a slow process.
Transition from a pristine pine forest to an oil field takes millions of
years (I vaguely remember that it can occur in about 100,000 years in the
right conditions, but the oil won't be very useable for a few hundred
thousand years afterwards). So, given that maybe 1 barrel of oil is created
each year, and we use several million barrels of oil each year, it's obvious
that we're going to run out sooner or later.

OTH... the Earth is about 4 billion years old. Of that, approximately 2
billion years has passed since organic life covered the surface of the
planet. The oil fields that we've tapped to date are largely on the
"surface", and we've still got a lot of that to plow through yet. And it's
speculated that there are much larger fields further down.

Oil scarcity isn't going to play a part that much over the next 60 years.
What's far more likely is that political instability in the major production
areas, combined with increasing concerns about pollution, will cause serious
restrictions on oil production and use.

Oh, and Stefan... your Reply-To field is overriding the list.

--
.sig deleted to conserve electrons. robert.watkins@******.com
Message no. 3
From: Robert Watkins <robert.watkins@******.COM>
Subject: Re: (Fwd) Re: Oil in the future...
Date: Wed, 30 Sep 1998 09:32:33 +1000
Damn, didn't notice it had been killed... can I have all replies (if any) to
that post of mine off-the-list, thanks?
Message no. 4
From: Robert Wolfgang Rumpf <rumpf.1@***.EDU>
Subject: Re: (Fwd) Re: Oil in the future...
Date: Wed, 30 Sep 1998 09:32:38 -0400
>Sir Philos Nex wrote:
>
>> [SNIP Oil as energy]
>>
>> Hate to be the one pointing this out but it appears like all you talk
>> about is oil as energy. What about the fact that oil is a vital
>> component in a lot of plastics and so on ? What will replace that.
>> Even thou we pump up oil and and depleating out sources of it there
>> are most likely alot of sources still not found and even thou it
>> takes a long long time there is new oil being created by mother
>> earth.
>
> I guess a question is: How long does it take to create oil? The natural
>process in mother earth that is.. Someone posted a rather informative
>cut-n-paste about oil and reserves in the future.. but it does seem like
>there are many many different opinions otherwise about just how much is
>left. It sounds almost like the Y2K problem with opinions.. some people say
>it'll be catestrophic and others say it'll merely pass.. it just seems like
>in 2060 no matter what is going on, oil will be in at least a somewhat
>hurting state and prices for gas won't be 52 cents a litre.
>

Oil is not the only source material which can be used for making plastic
and plastic-like polymers; there are many chemically-synthesized and
natural substitutes which can replace petroleum for plastic production,
including the ever-popular soybean.

But the game just has an extra grim tone to it when a major resource is
limited and almost gone....


Dr. Robert Wolfgang Rumpf * rumpf.1@***.edu or genomancer@******.org

http://www.marcon.org/users/bob

It is by caffeine alone that I set my mind in motion
By the beans of java, my thoughts acquire speed
The hands acquire the shakes, the shakes become a warning
It is by caffeine alone that I set my mind in motion

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