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Message no. 1
From: shadowrn@*********.com (Wordman)
Subject: Stock market
Date: Wed Apr 18 11:25:00 2001
Has anyone given any thought to realistically figuring out how the broad
market behaved in the SR timeline. I'd expect, for example, that the period
during, and immediately after, the events of Corp War were a pretty sever
bear market for example. Anyone given it more thought?
Message no. 2
From: shadowrn@*********.com (Jeroen Hendrickx)
Subject: Stock market
Date: Wed Apr 18 14:50:00 2001
> Has anyone given any thought to realistically
> figuring out how the broad market behaved in the SR
> timeline. I'd expect, for example, that the period
> during, and immediately after, the events of Corp
> War were a pretty sever bear market for example.
> Anyone given it more thought?

I'm giving it thought right now :)

There's only one thing I'm sure of: Eurocar courses
crashed somewhere during 2061. They're giving
Westwinds away for free these days :( Perhaps due to
the aftermath of Fuchi's bankrupt.

I guess the market had a mayor up after the appearance
of commercial bioware in the early fifties. Rising
more slowly during the middle fifties, with some minor
ups and downs occasionally. With a major downward
spiral (it's a curve actually) after the death of
Dunkelzahn which kept dwindling until after the Corp
Wars. By 2061, I guess, the market would be slowly
recovering.

Normally tendencies in the growth or decline of the
broad market are marked by indicators (or whatever
they are called). Sales of cars can be an indicator
for economic growth. Judging from Westwind prices,
there isn't much good to expect in the near future.
Not much of these indicators are given in SR
sourcebooks of course.

And that's about as much as I can directly remember
from economics courses.

-G|rsom


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Message no. 3
From: shadowrn@*********.com (Bob Ooton)
Subject: Stock market
Date: Wed Apr 18 16:20:01 2001
----- Original Message -----
From: Wordman <wordman@*******.com>
To: ShadowRN <shadowrn@*********.com>
Sent: Wednesday, April 18, 2001 10:25 AM
Subject: Stock market


> Has anyone given any thought to realistically figuring out how the
broad
> market behaved in the SR timeline. I'd expect, for example, that the
period
> during, and immediately after, the events of Corp War were a pretty
sever
> bear market for example. Anyone given it more thought?

Wouldn't a major corporate war mean a bull market? You're talking about
increased investment and development, corporate buyouts, and the other
sorts of things that mean a *lot* of stocks changing hands at increasing
prices.

Dunklezahn's will would have been a huge factor in world economics.
Tons of money was made available for research and even more was given
away to various interests. Once again, increased investment and
research means booming stocks.

Now, after the corporate war has cooled a bit, there are all sorts of
concerns and I think everything would lead to a steadily declining Bear
market if not an outright Depression. You've got Renraku losing the
Arcology, Fuchi's dissolution, Yamatetsu's move and metahuman
management, Cross & Wuxing & Novatech bursting onto the scene, and corps
like Mitsuhama and Saeder-Krupp benefiting at every turn. This would
make the Mitsuhama and Saeder-Krupp the investor's favorites (they made
it through the corp war as well as the backlash from it and came out
ahead... increased investment there for sure while many bail from the
other megas).

As for extrapolating everything starting from 2011 on... yeesh. Lots of
events that would realistically cripple the US and other world economies
(formation of NAN, UCAS, and CAS; VITAS outbreaks; elves & dwarves;
goblinization day; magic returning; Germany factioning off; formation of
the twin Tirs; and every other thing to come about). Lots of events
that either added huge new factors to be considered (like metahumanity
and magic) or violently redistributed capital (especially land) that
would have been thought stable previously. Booms in technology would
help to keep markets up and the addition of magic (while assuredly
destabilizing at first) provides a whole new market and group of
interests. The extraterritoriality of corps means a lot less taxes for
nations, so you've got social programs likely being shut down left and
right while government shifts to bare bones operations.

Lots to consider... too much. =)

| Bob Ooton <rbooton@*****.edu>
| aka TopCat, the cyberware advocate
| Member of the Black Hand Demo Team
Message no. 4
From: shadowrn@*********.com (Lester Ward)
Subject: Stock market
Date: Wed Apr 18 18:10:01 2001
> Wouldn't a major corporate war mean a bull market? You're talking about
> increased investment and development, corporate buyouts, and the other
> sorts of things that mean a *lot* of stocks changing hands at increasing
> prices.

I also means that upper management is not focused on their products and lots
money spent that does not immediately help the bottom line. Also, keep in
mind that during a takeover, for each stock that gets its value pumped up,
the company doing the buying is getting screwed. The money used to buy the
stock in the takeover is no longer available for pumping up the balance
sheet.

I'd suspect that during the war you might have had a bull market, but
company performance in the quarters that followed would have been horrible,
as the lack of focus on core business catches up with the companies.

> Lots to consider... too much. =)

Yeah. That's why I was hoping someone else had done the work!
Message no. 5
From: shadowrn@*********.com (shadowrn@*********.com)
Subject: Stock market
Date: Wed Apr 18 21:35:01 2001
In a message dated 4/18/01 6:15:22 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
lward@*******.com writes:

> I'd suspect that during the war you might have had a bull market, but
> company performance in the quarters that followed would have been horrible,
> as the lack of focus on core business catches up with the companies.

Understatement, eh? Keep in mind, security is PURE expense; MILLIONS of nuyen
in expense, for most A and higher corps, if not much more. Most corps would
fold violently after, oh.....2 quarters of said war? It's not like a war
between nations; There's no real mobilization occurring with any efficency.
Thus, a war of any duration whatsoever, on no matter the sphere of influence,
WILL take a severe toll on the affected corps.

John

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