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Message no. 1
From: Gone with the Lemming <ratinox@******.COE.NORTHEASTERN.EDU>
Subject: success probability chart
Date: Tue, 2 Feb 93 00:37:23 CET
The following is a table of probabilities for rolling successes. The top
row is the Target Number and the left column is the number of dice rolled.
Cross reference these two numbers to find the average number of successes
for those conditions. The chart is 128 characters wide.

Number of dice rolled Target Number
v
2 3 4 5 6-7 8 9 10 11 12-13 14 15 16
17 18-19 20 21 22 23 24-25 26
1 0.833 0.667 0.500 0.333 0.167 0.139 0.111 0.083 0.056 .0278 .0231 .0185 .0139
.0093 .0046 .0039 .0031 .0023 .0015 .0008 .0006
2 1.667 1.333 1.000 0.667 0.333 0.278 0.222 0.167 0.111 .0556 .0463 .0370 .0278
.0185 .0093 .0077 .0062 .0046 .0031 .0015 .0013
3 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 0.500 0.417 0.333 0.250 0.167 .0833 .0694 .0556 .0417
.0278 .0139 .0116 .0093 .0069 .0046 .0023 .0019
4 3.333 2.667 2.000 1.333 0.667 0.556 0.444 0.333 0.222 .1111 .0926 .0741 .0556
.0370 .0185 .0154 .0123 .0093 .0062 .0031 .0026
5 4.167 3.333 2.500 1.667 0.833 0.694 0.556 0.417 0.278 .1389 .1157 .0926 .0694
.0463 .0231 .0193 .0154 .0116 .0077 .0039 .0032
6 5.000 4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 0.833 0.667 0.500 0.333 .1667 .1389 .1111 .0833
.0556 .0278 .0231 .0185 .0139 .0093 .0046 .0039
7 5.833 4.667 3.500 2.333 1.167 0.972 0.778 0.583 0.389 .1944 .1620 .1296 .0972
.0648 .0324 .0270 .0216 .0162 .0108 .0054 .0045
8 6.667 5.333 4.000 2.667 1.333 1.111 0.889 0.667 0.444 .2222 .1852 .1481 .1111
.0741 .0370 .0309 .0247 .0185 .0123 .0062 .0051
9 7.500 6.000 4.500 3.000 1.500 1.250 1.000 0.750 0.500 .2500 .2083 .1667 .1250
.0833 .0417 .0347 .0278 .0208 .0139 .0069 .0058
10 8.333 6.667 5.000 3.333 1.667 1.389 1.111 0.833 0.556 .2778 .2315 .1852 .1389
.0926 .0463 .0386 .0309 .0231 .0154 .0077 .0064
11 9.167 7.333 5.500 3.667 1.833 1.528 1.222 0.917 0.611 .3056 .2546 .2037 .1528
.1019 .0509 .0424 .0340 .0255 .0170 .0085 .0071
12 10.00 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 1.667 1.333 1.000 0.667 .3333 .2778 .2222 .1667
.1111 .0556 .0463 .0370 .0278 .0185 .0093 .0077
13 10.83 8.667 6.500 4.333 2.167 1.806 1.444 1.083 0.722 .3611 .3009 .2407 .1806
.1204 .0602 .0502 .0401 .0301 .0201 .0100 .0084
14 11.67 9.333 7.000 4.667 2.333 1.944 1.556 1.167 0.778 .3889 .3241 .2593 .1944
.1296 .0648 .0540 .0432 .0324 .0216 .0108 .0090
15 12.50 10.00 7.500 5.000 2.500 2.083 1.667 1.250 0.833 .4167 .3472 .2778 .2083
.1389 .0694 .0579 .0463 .0347 .0231 .0116 .0096
16 13.33 10.67 8.000 5.333 2.667 2.222 1.778 1.333 0.889 .4444 .3704 .2963 .2222
.1481 .0741 .0617 .0494 .0370 .0247 .0123 .0103
17 14.17 11.33 8.500 5.667 2.833 2.361 1.889 1.417 0.944 .4722 .3935 .3148 .2361
.1574 .0787 .0656 .0525 .0394 .0262 .0131 .0109
18 15.00 12.00 9.000 6.000 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 .5000 .4167 .3333 .2500
.1667 .0833 .0694 .0556 .0417 .0278 .0139 .0116
19 15.83 12.67 9.500 6.333 3.167 2.639 2.111 1.583 1.056 .5278 .4398 .3519 .2639
.1759 .0880 .0733 .0586 .0440 .0293 .0147 .0122
20 16.67 13.33 10.00 6.667 3.333 2.778 2.222 1.667 1.111 .5556 .4630 .3704 .2778
.1852 .0926 .0772 .0617 .0463 .0309 .0154 .0129

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Disclaimer

These messages were posted a long time ago on a mailing list far, far away. The copyright to their contents probably lies with the original authors of the individual messages, but since they were published in an electronic forum that anyone could subscribe to, and the logs were available to subscribers and most likely non-subscribers as well, it's felt that re-publishing them here is a kind of public service.