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Message no. 1
From: MC23 <mc23@****.NET>
Subject: Target number probability (was Target numbers)
Date: Fri, 24 Jan 1997 11:37:06 -0500
WW dice are also based on a different target number system. 3
successes in WW means an average result which is also based on a
different success level chart. If you wanted to convert Shadowrun to just
a d10 system them you start to get into a whole lot of conversions.
Everything in Shadowrun is based on a 1 to 6 scale basically so
converting over to a d10 to generate the numbers with roughly the same
probability would be far too complex than I care to crunch out.
Shadowrun's d6 system is only harsh when you get into the severities of
what a penalty does to your probabilities.

Here's the breakdown on target number probability and sucess level for
one die.

Target # Success % Description Minimum Success*
1 100% 1
2 83% Simple 2
3 67% Routine 2
4 50% Average 2
5 33% Challenging 3
6-7 16% Difficult 6
8 14% Strenuous 8
9 11% Extreme 9
10 8% Nearly Impossible 12

*Minimum success is how many dice you would need to role to expect to get
one success (#dice times Success probability = 100% or greater)

I hope this give you a general idea of how probability works in Shadowrun.




Ancient cultures believed that names held great power, personal
names more so and they were guarded very closely. To protect themselves,
they answered to another name, because if another discovered their real
name, it could be used against them.
History repeats itself.
Welcome to the Digital Age.
I am MC23
Message no. 2
From: David Buehrer <dbuehrer@****.ORG>
Subject: Re: Target number probability (was Target numbers)
Date: Fri, 24 Jan 1997 09:53:38 -0700
MC23 wrote:
|
| WW dice are also based on a different target number system. 3
| successes in WW means an average result which is also based on a
| different success level chart. If you wanted to convert Shadowrun to just
| a d10 system them you start to get into a whole lot of conversions.

I flirted briefly with changing from d6 to d12 and doubling
all the base target numbers (keeping the same modifiers) to
try and minimize the 6-7 problem. It don't work...

You can't change any part of SR's basic dice/TN/success
system without wreaking havoc. Change modifiers and TNs,
but not the basics. (That's right, David B. is advocating
sticking to the rules, isn't that the second sign of the
Apocolypse ;)

-David
--
/^\/^\/^\/^\/^\/^\/^\ dbuehrer@****.org /^\/^\/^\/^\/^\/^\/^\
"His thoughts tumbled in his head, making and breaking
alliances like underpants in a dryer without Cling Free."
~~~http://www.geocities.com/TimesSquare/1068/homepage.htm~~~~
Message no. 3
From: Gurth <gurth@******.NL>
Subject: Re: Target number probability (was Target numbers)
Date: Fri, 24 Jan 1997 19:45:30 +0100
David Buehrer said on 9:53/24 Jan 97...

> I flirted briefly with changing from d6 to d12 and doubling
> all the base target numbers (keeping the same modifiers) to
> try and minimize the 6-7 problem. It don't work...

You're only shifting it a bit further, and you need to invest in lots of
D12s :)

> You can't change any part of SR's basic dice/TN/success system without
> wreaking havoc. Change modifiers and TNs, but not the basics. (That's
> right, David B. is advocating sticking to the rules, isn't that the
> second sign of the Apocolypse ;)

The second was Rat's return, wasn't it? Then this must be the third...

(For all you who read up on the subject, how many signs _are_ there
anyway? It might be important to know real soon if this trend continues :)

--
Gurth@******.nl - http://www.xs4all.nl/~gurth/index.html
eMpty TV
-> NERPS Project Leader & Unofficial Shadowrun Guru <-
-> The Plastic Warriors Page: http://www.xs4all.nl/~gurth/plastic.html <-

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Message no. 4
From: Droopy <droopy@*******.NB.NET>
Subject: Re: Target number probability (was Target numbers)
Date: Fri, 24 Jan 1997 17:19:52 +0000
> From: MC23 <mc23@****.NET>
> Subject: Target number probability (was Target numbers)

> Everything in Shadowrun is based on a 1 to 6 scale basically so
> converting over to a d10 to generate the numbers with roughly the same
> probability would be far too complex than I care to crunch out.
> Shadowrun's d6 system is only harsh when you get into the severities of
> what a penalty does to your probabilities.

Dunno if this is directed at me or not, but I worked out the
probabilities. A character with a skill of 1 will be succesfull 50%
of the time when attempting an average task. I based the d10 system
on the general spike to 98% inherent in SR at higher skill levels.
Made a chart and everything to work it out.


--Droopy
droopy@**.net
Message no. 5
From: MC23 <mc23@****.NET>
Subject: Re: Target number probability (was Target numbers)
Date: Sat, 25 Jan 1997 03:19:45 -0500
Droopy wrote,
>Dunno if this is directed at me or not, but I worked out the
>probabilities.
<snip>
Nah, just a general WW dice system overview. I'm curious what you've
crunched out. Could you send me a personal copy of it?
thanx




Ancient cultures believed that names held great power, personal
names more so and they were guarded very closely. To protect themselves,
they answered to another name, because if another discovered their real
name, it could be used against them.
History repeats itself.
Welcome to the Digital Age.
I am MC23

Further Reading

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