Back to the main page

Mailing List Logs for ShadowRN

Message no. 1
From: Tim P Cooper <z-i-m@****.COM>
Subject: Re: Target numbers [OT]
Date: Fri, 24 Jan 1997 22:46:22 EST
On Fri, 24 Jan 1997 08:22:16 -0600 Donald G Bixler
<mudgb4@***.ECN.BGU.EDU> writes:
>> I'm not too great at statistics, but someone (Rat?) once said on
>this list
>> that in WW's system your chances of botching the roll increase as
>you roll
>> more dice, rather than decrease; IMHO that's not really a good
>thing...
>
> In WW's system, it's when you have a combo of high difficulty
>and large number of dice the the botch chances go screwy. 8+
>difficulty and 6+ dice, IIRC...
>
>Oops da Ogre
>

Yeah, well duh! I mean if you have a 20% chance of getting a success on
a single die, and a 10% chance of getting a 1, then yes, it gets fairly
interesting no matter how many dice you roll. If you only roll a few
dice (like say 3 - no skill, but an average attribute) those three dice
weigh very heavily on the out come - you can botch or succeed based on a
single die's outcome, but if you roll more dice, then the results of each
die have potentially less impact.

~Tim
Message no. 2
From: Brett Borger <bxb121@***.EDU>
Subject: Re: Target numbers [OT]
Date: Sat, 25 Jan 1997 16:42:09 -0500
>> In WW's system, it's when you have a combo of high difficulty
>>and large number of dice the the botch chances go screwy. 8+
>>difficulty and 6+ dice, IIRC...

>Yeah, well duh! I mean if you have a 20% chance of getting a success on
>a single die, and a 10% chance of getting a 1, then yes, it gets fairly
>interesting no matter how many dice you roll. If you only roll a few
>dice (like say 3 - no skill, but an average attribute) those three dice
>weigh very heavily on the out come - you can botch or succeed based on a
>single die's outcome, but if you roll more dice, then the results of each
>die have potentially less impact.

But in White Wolf it doesn't always work that way...With a high target
number, and large number of die, it get EASIER to roll more botches than
successes....

I always hated that....

-=SwiftOne=-
Message no. 3
From: Tim P Cooper <z-i-m@****.COM>
Subject: Re: Target numbers [OT]
Date: Sat, 25 Jan 1997 22:13:07 EST
On Sat, 25 Jan 1997 16:42:09 -0500 Brett Borger <bxb121@***.EDU> writes:

[snip earlier comments on high target numbers and numbers of botches]

>
>But in White Wolf it doesn't always work that way...With a high target
>number, and large number of die, it get EASIER to roll more botches
>than successes....
>
>I always hated that....

The only way that it's easier to roll Botches than successes is if your
t# is OVER 10. Because at T# 10, you have an equal chance to roll a
botch as you do to roll a success.

A 10% chance botch and a 10% chance of success....

I just sat around for a few minutes and rolled 10 dice a dozen or so
times versus a T# of 10 and got about 4 botches, the roll failed about an
equal number of times, the rest generated one or more net successes. The
botches were only the times that I failed to roll ANY 10's...the time
that I rolled the most 1's (2) was also the time that I rolled about five
10's...I just don't believe that it's any EASIER to botch will large
numbers of dice..it's just that as your t#'s approach 10, the probability
of success and botch get closer and closer.

I just did it again with only 5 dice....1 successfull roll (generated at
least 1 net success), 9 failures (no net successes), and 2 botches (more
1's than 10's - also due to no 10's being rolled both times).

I don't know...maybe it's cause you just think that the odds are worse...

>
>-=SwiftOne=-
>

~Tim (who's decided that probability always works, except when it
doesn't)
Message no. 4
From: Brett Borger <bxb121@***.EDU>
Subject: Re: Target numbers [OT]
Date: Sun, 26 Jan 1997 04:14:56 -0500
>I just sat around for a few minutes and rolled 10 dice a dozen or so
>times versus a T# of 10 and got about 4 botches, the roll failed about an
>equal number of times, the rest generated one or more net successes. The
>botches were only the times that I failed to roll ANY 10's...the time
>that I rolled the most 1's (2) was also the time that I rolled about five
>10's...I just don't believe that it's any EASIER to botch will large
>numbers of dice..it's just that as your t#'s approach 10, the probability
>of success and botch get closer and closer.

I'm not talking of a difference that will be easy to see with 4 vs 5 die.

try tests with 2, 5, and 10. Record your numbers. Remember that while
statistics may say the AVERAGE chance is still good for you, it also says
that MORE of the FAILURES can be botches, the more die you roll.

I always created characters with a Merit that allowed me to ignore one botch
die....Saved my hide more times than I care to count.

'Sides, White wolf DOES have TN#'s of ten in places...

-=SwiftOne=-

Further Reading

If you enjoyed reading about Target numbers [OT], you may also be interested in:

Disclaimer

These messages were posted a long time ago on a mailing list far, far away. The copyright to their contents probably lies with the original authors of the individual messages, but since they were published in an electronic forum that anyone could subscribe to, and the logs were available to subscribers and most likely non-subscribers as well, it's felt that re-publishing them here is a kind of public service.

Thwap!