From:	David Buehrer <dbuehrer@****.ORG>
Subject:	Re: Viral diseases
Date:	Tue, 22 Jul 1997 12:52:59 -0600

Gurth wrote:
|
| > how many people do you see in 12 hours?
|
| How many people do _I_ see in 12 hours? Three or four on a normal day. Oh,
| "you" meant "the average person"... :)
|
| > howabout the normal wage slave in a packed office?
| > This would spread and I could easily see it wiping out large numers of
| > people in short time.
|
| I still don't buy it. You may run into a lot of people in 12 hours, but
| that means the disease would be so damn contagious that _nobody_ is safe
| from infection, unless there'd be some factor that prevents certain people
| from getting the disease itself.

Some people do have natural immunity to certain diseases, and no one
knows why. Others just get unbelievably lucky. And as to the
infectiousness it depends on *how* it's transmitted and how "strong"
the virus is. An airborne virus spreads like nobody's business. If
it's a "weak" virus most people won't catch it and it won't spread
very far, or very quickly. If it's a "strong" virus look out.

Public transportation and airports/train/bus stations. Take one
person that's infected with a highly infectious disease, put em on a
plane, and after 24 hours the numbers of possible victims are very
scary. All of the people that where infected on the plane hit the
next airport and encounter other people on the airport going on other
flights. Some of the people from the original plane transfer to
other planes and it jumps again. And so on. People who are infected
leave the airport by taxi and spread it to the taxi driver. Or god
forbid they take the bus or subway. Then the virus travels to public
areas like schools, malls, office buildings and hospitals. And VITAS
had 12 hours head start to get a firm foothold. Give it another
couple of hours before local doctors start to get a clue. Another
6-10 before the international cases start to appear. And by then
it's to late.

Now, if the virus hits someone in a remote community then it pretty
much stays there (unless you get unlucky). Likewise remote areas are
less likely to be affected.

It all depends on where the infection starts. With the speed that
VITAS hit I'd say it either travelled through public transportation,
or it manifested as a magical event.

-David
--
"Creativity is allowing yourself to make mistakes. Art is knowing
which ones to keep."