From:	Mongoose m0ng005e@*********.com
Subject:	Elf/Dwarf Transforms, Part 1 (was RE: Breeder definition)
Date:	Thu, 18 Feb 1999 17:04:37 -0600

:Well, until someone can offer solid proof that I'm wrong, I'm continuing
to
:run my world as if there were a wave of elf/dwarf transformations since
:that's the only way FASA's numbers can make any damn sense.


I'd be interested to see the math that lead you to that
conclusion. My own best guess is that the percentage of UGE children from
2011 - 203x must have been pretty high, but that once a decent sized
generation of elves was born, it could be self supporting.
Say that UGE rates apoached 30% (25% elf, 5% dwarf - that seems to fit
current ratios), for 25 years (2011-2036). That replaces almost the
entire reproductive population. In the next 30 years, the non-aged
population would come to reflect those ratios, as the UGE percentage breed
true. By 2060, we would have a older population of ONLY humans (people
over 50), and a mixed population of people under 50 (given my above
figures, almost 25% elf, and 5% dwarf). If people over 50 were 1/2 the
population at that point (unlikely) elves would be about 12.5% of the
population, and dwarves 2.5%. 85% of the population would be human, and
that portion would decrease as the elderly "pre awakened" portion died
off.
Since this is a greater number of dwarves and elves than SR claims,
the UGE rate could have been lower. Also, in certain localized areas or
ethnic groups, it could have been higher.

This also completely ignores Goblinization. Goblinization (and
subsiquent breeding by goblinized persons) was the primary source of Orc
and Troll populations, although there were also human born Goblin
children. For my purposes, what is interesting is that Goblinization
occurred *after* UGE, and affected maybe 1 in 10 *humans*. As such, it
decreses the portion of the pupolation that is human by 10%, without
requiring UGE to do the work. Also, due to the shorter lifespans of
trolls and orcs (due to early anti-meta oppresion, if nothing else), it
cuts the number of aged humans somewhat (10 percent of the humans born
before 2011 goblinized, but they probably are not still around).
Using the above methods of guestimation, and acounting for
Goblinization, its my guess that UGE ran at about 20% for maybe 20 years,
tapering off towards the end of that time.

When you consider how recently introduced metahumans are, compared to
the Humans who through most of thier youth would have wielded almost all
of the worlds political and financial power, you get a better picture of
the great upheval and social issues involved in the SR world. It makes
the "baby boomer effect" in the 1960's (and again in the 1980's...) look
downright pusilanimous.

Mongoose