| From: | Sommers sommers@*****.edu |
|---|---|
| Subject: | Second Hand |
| Date: | Fri, 03 Sep 1999 17:20:20 -0400 |
>At 14.38 09-03-99 -0400, you wrote:
> >I could believe that it was deliberate, and meant to send a message to the
> >Chinese not to screw with the US, except for one thing. It doesn't make
>
> Sommers, it's an act of war. The PRC could legally retailiate in any
>method they felt like.
> They know what it was, the US knows what it was, the UN knows
> what it was,
>but no one is going to admit it in public for that reason.
Yes it could be considered an act of war. China could publicly declare war
on the US and have every right to do so. Then we would declare war on them
and it would get very messy. But they can't legally do anything to us other
than sue for compensation for the building and the 4 people killed. And
we've already promised them that.
But if we were starting something we would actually have to deliver to them
an declaration of war. Accidents like this, and much bigger ones, do happen
and do not lead to wars or other retaliation.
> >the President of the US does not publicly call the Chinese Premiere and
> >apologize not once, not twice, but three times!
>
> It's the PR game. We have, in action, declared war on China. We
> are not
>a possision to be able to execute that option, and the public would not
>support it. So, we cover our ass and hope they don't sink one of our
>carriers. Expect to see something of ours blown up by someone with
>connections to China within a year.
First, the only thing that can be considered an action that declares war on
China is to walk up to them and say that we are at war with them. Anything
else is just provoking them into war. Which we were not doing because a)
there would be no support for it and b) there is no reason for it. There is
a big difference between strained relations between countries leading to
tariffs, loss of technology transfers, and the potential loss of markets,
and open warfare.
Second, the Chinese don't have anything that could sink a carrier. They
have a brown water Navy with 1 (!) submarine, and a large air force with
poorly trained pilots. They have good missiles, but they have to get them
launched first. There was a really good article in Time over the summer
that detailed the Chinese forces.
Third, the Chinese will not blow up anything of the US in the next year. We
blew up their embassy in the middle of a war. They aren't in any wars right
now. Anything they could touch is within their borders, in which case its
probably pretty obvious that they did it. That doesn't mean they can't
screw with us politically, like in the Security Council with votes on Iraq,
or similar things. But they won't rock the boat too much because of items
such as GATT.
Fourth, the reason that the Chinese got so worked up about it is because of
internal politics. They are having a lot more dissent again, and needed
something to focus attention on besides a lot of failed policies by the
present government. Nothing like whipping up furor against those Western
Imperialists. :)
Hell, for that matter, I could more easily see a conspiracy from the
Chinese. They purposefully move their embassy and don't make it known to
the CIA so that something like this can happen and they can wring
concessions from us later.
> >If you're a thief and hold someone up with a gun, you don't apologize
> >afterwards and ask if there is anything you can do to make it up to him. If
>
> It's called community service is handed out in every court in this
>country, and every day, and for crimes much more significant that just
>criminal threatening and robbery.
That's not what I meant. What I did mean was that it doesn't make much
sense to threaten someone, try to send a very imposing and gruff message,
and then back down and get all apologetic about the whole thing. It makes
you look worse than you did before the whole thing started, because you've
just undercut yourself.
>Kevin Dole, aka CyberRaven, aka IronRaven, aka Steel Tengu
>http://members.xoom.com/iron_raven/
>"Once again, we have spat in the face of Death and his second cousin,
>Dismemberment."
>"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in
>your philosophy."
Sommers
Insert witty quote here.
